THE NEXT MARQUES COLSTON: MINING ROUNDS 3-7 OF THE 2008 DRAFT
By Michael Williams for The Fantasy Jungle

There is an old adage that says “April Showers Bring May Flowers”, but for most fantasy players, the only thing that they care about April bringing, is the NFL Draft. There aren’t a whole lot of difference makers that come out of the Rookie Draft each season and become instant fantasy options, but there have been some home run hitters, and if you were lucky enough to have plucked out a Randy Moss or an Anquan Boldin during their rookie years, it was like getting a free extra player in the top 2 rounds of the draft. Two seasons ago, Reggie Bush was dynamite over the money weeks and factored into many playoff wins, however “Pan Down, We’ve Got Bush”, wasn’t exactly a sleeper. He went anywhere from Round 1 to Round 3. The bulk of the successful rookies come from the first two rounds of the NFL draft, and this year is no different, but if you can find that same kind of quality from a rookie taken later in the draft and flying under the radar, then that’s what could help you break the bank. Look no further than the season Marques Colston put together during his rookie fantasy football season.

Tapping into rounds 3-7 of the NFL draft is a hell of a resource, because quite frankly, most people don’t even consider it. In fact, many of the publications and the so called experts who are providing the info for your fellow competitors draft day rankings, will do nothing more then list the middle round draft picks with a blurb that says “no fantasy impact”. In their defense, it’s really not an area to spend a lot of time covering because you are lucky to find one player a year from these rounds. But, if you reflect on Colston and the type of impact he had, why would you not take a long look at these players. In fact, if we look at the last 5 NFL seasons, there have been two super impact rookies drafted from the 3rd round and beyond. In 2006 we had Colston who was a 7th round pick that hauled in 70 balls for 1038 yards and 8 TD’s. In 2003, we had Domanick Davis, a 4th round selection that took over the starting RB job in Week 6 for the Texans. He was a house of fire as he broke the 1,000 yard rushing mark, scored 8 times, and added 47 receptions over 10 starts. In 2004-2006, we didn’t have anyone make as much of an impact. So over the last 5 seasons, that’s a 40% success rate that a rookie from rounds 3-7 has had a big impact. Only 2 guys broke out, but they did so in a big way and if you go back in time, you will see that both Davis and Colston were on many of the eventual championship teams in your league.

Looking at that many players over the last 5 rounds of the draft can be overwhelming, as 66 players were taken at fantasy offensive scoring positions. We can, however, quickly whittle away 66 down to a manageable number, until we have a board of players who should be worth monitoring through August and give us a base of guys who have the most potential to possibly turn into the next Colston or Davis.

In the rounds of 3-7, there were (66) fantasy players taken at offensive skill positions. (QB,RB,TE,WR,K). So that’s our base that we start off with. From those 66 players, we can eliminate the 9 Quarterbacks. If a starting QB goes down this year, these guys still aren’t taking over, so they are non-factors this season. In the crazy event that they end up having to play, you don’t want any part of it anyway, so that cuts the group of players we are looking at to 57.

Next, there were 10 TE’s selected, and we can also go ahead and eliminate them from being factors this season. Most of these players were taken by teams who are set at TE, so there shouldn’t be much fantasy production from these TE’s.

Now down to 47 players on our list, we can start looking at situations where guys just aren’t going to be able to get on the field due to numbers ahead of them no matter what they do. Even if they shine as a rookie, the people in front of them are shining brighter, so that cuts another 39 guys off of our list.

We can next go ahead and cut the 2 kickers who were selected from our list. They may both start, however kickers aren’t going to provide you the Colston impact we are shooting for so we can eliminate them.

This now gives us a working number of 6 guys that we can focus on, who are the most optimal candidates to have a chance to be the ultimate diamond in the rough this season. These players all walk into a situation where they have a chance to play if they perform well in training camp, which is the major reason they make the list. They also have in common that they are either Running Backs or Wide Receivers, key positions in fantasy football. In no particular order, let’s take a look at them.

RUNNING BACKS

#1) Kevin Smith- 3rd Rd. Detroit Lions (Central Florida)
Smith shouldn’t be a surprise, as he is already being touted as the next feature back in Detroit. When the Lions cut Kevin Jones this offseason, Smith immediately became someone to look at. The Lions are thin at RB, with the only two guys in front of Smith being Tatum Bell and Brian Calhoun. Smith was a monster at Central Florida, declaring early for the NFL draft after his junior season, amassing 450 carries so his durability shouldn’t be in question. It’s also important to note that the Lions are switching to a new running scheme that Kevin Smith ran in college. He has a great chance to not only play significant minutes, but to win the starting job in Detroit at some point this year.

#2) Steve Slaton- 3rd Rd. Houston Texans (West Virginia)
It boggles my mind that Steve Slaton has slipped so much in the minds of everyone. Coming into last season, Slaton was projected as a top 10 NFL pick, and it all fell away because of one half of a season where he underperformed. Something was off with Slaton and I believe it was an injury. Slaton was a touchdown machine at West Virginia University and came out as a true junior. He has tremendous hands and great breakaway speed. Watch the Pitt tape of his sophomore season where he had over 100 yards receiving, often catching balls lined up split out wide or in the slot. He excels in a zone blocking scheme and that’s just what Houston runs. He also comes into a situation with not a lot of competition. Ahman Green and Chris Brown are both old and have injury concerns. Darius Walker is not even close to as good as Slaton. Slaton has the skills of Marshall Faulk and is a fantastic sleeper in Houston this season. Dare I say he could be the reincarnation of Domanick Davis from his rookie season?

#3) Tim Hightower- 5th Rd. Arizona (Richmond)
Hightower is a dynamo. Edgerrin James isn’t getting any younger and he’s just not the same Edge that lived in Indy. Hightower won’t take his job barring an injury, but keep an eye on him. He rushed for almost 2,000 yards and 20TD’s during his senior year at 1-AA Richmond. And no it’s not 1-A but Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, and Walter Payton all came out of 1-AA, so keep that in mind.

WIDE RECEIVERS

#4) Earl Bennett- 3rd Rd. Chicago (Vanderbilt)
Any WR in Chicago should be worth checking out as the Bears lost both of their 2007 starting receivers. Bennett caught 80 balls as a true freshman at Vandy when Jay Cutler was the QB. He went on to repeat those numbers over the next few seasons in the tough SEC and that landed him in Chicago. This guy has a great chance to see the field as a rookie for the Bears who are very thin at quality WR’s.


#5) Harry Douglas- 3rd Rd. Atlanta (Louisville)
It’s always good for a rookie to come in under a new coaching regime as it allows them to come in with a clean slate, and it puts some veterans on a shorter leash. The Falcons are one team that is totally in need of a makeover from 2007 and they are going to get it. Douglas was dynamite in college catching many passes at Louisville. He has great hands and has a chance to join a young Atlanta WR corp. Rowdy Roddy White finally stepped up last season, but after him, there is an opportunity for catches for other guys, and Douglas may get a chance at some of them.

#6) Lavelle Hawkins- 4th Rd. Tennessee (California)
Possibly the worst WR corp in all of football resides in Tennessee. Vince Young suffered badly from a lack of production from this unit last season and it has to get better. Hawkins was adequate in college, but is in a great situation where if he plays well in training camp, he may be a factor at WR for the Titans.