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THE POWER OF THE QB AT THE FLEX POSITION
by Lou Tranquilli for The Fantasy Jungle
I hope you are enjoying what little time is left of the Fantasy
off-season by studying hard and reviewing last seasons outstanding draft
selections, and mistakes. I’ve enjoyed reviewing the Fantasy Jungle Draft for
League 18 a few times with friends, and discussing what went so right for this
squad that won an extremely tough league featuring three teams that placed in
the Top 45 regular season scorers.
When discussing how this team won, my reply has been consistent; “Rex Grossman
was available on the Waiver Wire”…yup, even though we picked up Marques Colston
off the wire after week #1, the key Free Agent was Rex Grossman. He added so
much flexibility (no pun intended) to the lineup decision each week. How could a
marginal QB do that? The answer is consistency, and plenty of it from the Flex
spot.
Let’s take a look at the lineup requirements. Fantasy Jungle teams must start 2
RBs and 3 WRs each week, and that means 24 RBs at a minimum are started each
week, while 36 WRs at a minimum are started. The weekly average for RB #25 (a RB
filling the Flex spot) was 12.3 points scored; he’s the best possible scoring #3
RB available on average each week. The weekly average for WR #37 (A WR filling
the Flex spot) was 11 points scored, representing the best possible scoring #4
WR available on average each week. I’m bolding on average because some teams
obviously had a much higher scoring RB or WR filling the Flex spot, but that
doesn’t affect the lineup requirement. The weekly average for QB #13 (a QB
filling the Flex spot) is….16.1 points per game, a 4 point per week advantage
over RB #25 and a 5 point per week advantage over WR #37. To equate that 16.1 to
a RB weekly score, you would need to have 3 RBs that finished in the Top 11 in
scoring on your roster. To equate that to a WR you would have to have 4 WRs that
finished in the Top 11 on your roster, a much harder task at the draft. The QB
that scored 12.3 points per game on average is QB #47! Your chances of
outscoring the finest of WRs and RBs are substantial each week with a QB in the
Flex spot.
The depth at QB is easier to deal with, when drafting a Jungle team it’s sweet
to load up on WRs and RBs through 6 rounds and then start taking the QBs that
are left. I was drafting in League 18 in 2006 and the 7th Round had Trent Green
(my team), Mike Vick, Drew Bledsoe, and Brett Favre in it. Two guys that
finished Top 12, and going on to later rounds Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Jon
Kitna, Chad Pennington, Steve McNair and Ben Roethlisberger were drafted. All
but Green averaged better than 16.5 points per game, the equivalent of Reggie
Bush at RB and Lee Evans at WR with a much lower draft day price tag. QBs are
easier to deal with on a week to week starter basis, you can be confident that
your guy is getting the start with certainty and can reasonably expect a quality
score from him. If he’s faltering the head coach will pull a Mike Shanahan and
announce that “Jake Plummer needs to play better or we’ll put the other guy in”
giving plenty of fair warning for the Fantasy world to adjust their thinking.
There is one downside to making the QB your Flex player, and it’s fairly
straight forward, and that is that the “upside” potential each week is limited.
Although you’ll get a guy that is consistent and won’t pay a high price, the
fact is that most weeks the Top scoring QB was around 29 Jungle Points and the
12th QB was right around 19 Jungle points, a fairly limited window of upside.
The best way to look at this, is if you believe the rest of your team is strong
each week you can take advantage of the Power Schedule with a solid known 16-19
fantasy points from this position, but it may cost you some potential wins
because your team isn’t as explosive.
QBs are generally undervalued in Fantasy Leagues these days due to their numbers
being so close on a week over week basis. I’m a strong advocate of waiting to
take them in most drafts but the Fantasy Jungle has added a unique dimension to
team building, and it brings the value back up for a forgotten position.
Lou Tranquilli is considered one of the best fantasy
players in the nation. He has won numerous league and national titles in various
leagues, including the League 18 Championship in The Fantasy Jungle in 2006. He
is also the founder and operator of fantasy info site, BFDFantasy.com where he
issues superb content and info for all of your Fantasy Football needs, both
pre-season and in season with great weekly podcasts and up to date advice and
rankings. In addition, BFDFantasy.com is giving away free entries to various
contests that total over $500,000 in prizes. For the ridiculously low rate of
$14.95, you receive a full season worth of coverage, including Fantasy Jungle
specific content. Sign up for BFDFantasy.com and tell them the Jungle sent you,
and you will be entered into a drawing for a free 2007 Fantasy Jungle team.
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